It’s been almost a season with the new special events, and one of the most discussed change is the new Powerful Normal Forward (PNF). How valuable is he? Should I buy or train one for my team or will it be just a hole in the water?

Let’s summarise the rules for the PNF again. You need a powerful forward with high playmaking and scoring. For any such a player, the higher your odds of creating such an event. In specific:

– With only one PNF, you have 10% chances of letting your players try to score like that.

– With two PNFs, the probability increases to 16%

– And finally, with three PNFs, you have 20%.

When does your team have that opportunity? Right after a missing, normal chance, the probabilities above get into the game. If you are lucky, then the playmaking skill of the chosen PNF is compared against the sum of the defending skill of the central defenders. All side effects (form, stamina, experience, health, loyalty, homegrown bonus) take their part in the calculations. If your opponent doesn’t have any central defenders, then no one is there to stop you reaching the goalkeeper.

If you pass the defenders, and only then, it will be decided if your event is a success or a failure. At this point, the scoring skill of your PNF is compared with the goalkeeping skill of the opponent keeper. Again, all the side effects are applied here too.

We know how much you love statistics, and that’s why we will give you a taste of PNF.

We ran a few simulations with real matches. In every case, the ratings of home and away team were identical. Same with all the players’ attributes. The home team was the one with the powerful players. The Powerful Forward had titanic (15) playmaking and scoring skill. The opponent defender had titanic (15) defending skill and the keeper had extra-terrestrial (16) goalkeeping skill. In every match type (with 1 or 2 PNFs against 0 to 3 central defenders), we ran 3000 simulations and got the following stats:

– Win/Tie chances.

– Average home goals.

– Chances to get at least 1 PNF event.

And what about the case with 3 PNFs? We are aware how much you love the stats and transparency, but we also know how much you love to do your own researches. That’s why we left the last case out of our blog post to let you find more about it. Good luck and see you on our next dev post 🙂

HT-Tasos

“You need a powerful forward with high playmaking and scoring. For any such a player, the higher your odds of creating **such an event**.”

What event?

“– With only one PNF, you have 10% chances of letting your players try **to score like that**.”

Like what?

“When does your team have **that opportunity**?”

What opportunity?

I think you forgot a paragraph somewhere…

Even though we love in depth analysis in obscure blog bosts, it’s totally unacceptable to use use even one minute on this matter until the manual is updated with the basic concepts of the new features in the game engine.

Please fix the match engine.

Thanks for the update.

Thanks Tasos. Looking forward to reading it in the manual.

So what about the Powerful Defensive Inner Midfielder?

There are is a main point I think everyone should understand:

An important aspect of the game design means that the PNF must give up the extra PM of a defensive forward. So a good comparison would be to take the same PNF, play him defensively instead. Does the extra possession offset the lack of the PNF generated goals?

The only real gain is the number of goals those with him playing Normal vs. Defensive. Keep in mind that the DF could also have a Spec which would allow him to score while playing defensive.

I applaud the efforts to get players to do something other than play so as to maximize PM. But the payoff has to be factored against this loss.

Totally agree royson. The comparison needs to be between PNF and commonly played alternatives – a lot of work, as there are probably a half a dozen, but at least it would be a worthwhile project.

how do these events look in the match report? I’ve seen many PNF matches and cannot tell the difference with normal goals

How can that be right? No PDF -> 1,59 goals and 1 PDF and no D -> 3,58 goals? You should have 10% chance to get event, so that should mean 20 missed chances even if you score 100%..

Just a guess: it looks like he hasnt kept the same defense ratings. Less defenders-> less total defense. Of course this distorts the whole pucture…

Update the manual with all new changes, only 1-2% of the community reads this blog, most people are confused of all the new changes and are waiting official editorials, not obscure blog posts.

Yes. Why not post everything on the normal website?

Assuming that ALL the other aspects of the both team are identical (if not, this post makes no sense at all)

With 1 PNF and 1 defender, one PNF event appears at least in the 16,7% of matches.

With 0 PNF and 1 defender, the average number of goals is 1,59.

With 1 PNF and 1 defender, the average number of goals is 2.00.

This means, that 1PNF, when only one defender is in the other team, provides 0.41 goals per match.

Assuming the same midfield, it is fair to assume 5 chances for each team. With one PNF you have 10% of probability to the event to happen. That is,

5*0.1 * conversion_rate = 0.41.

Then, conversion_rate = 0.82.

Is this conversion rate of 82% correct in this case, or is there any mistake that I missing at some point?

From my previous comment, notice that I’ve assumed that all the chances where failed, what it is not realistic. But if you consider less chances, then the conversion rate increases.