It’s almost impossible to read the forums without finding a topic about random. It’s like a sticky thread, but naturally without it being a proper sticky. And most of the times I have to say such threads are a bit of a bore; they tend to be quite repetitious and often just blaming random for a (unfair) loss. Never a lucky win though.
Anyways, when I started to read the thread “A lot of random in the game engine” (Global English forum) last week I didn’t have any high expectations on it, but it showed up as one of the examples of when such a thread can be really interesting to read, and I think many users would also find it quite educating.
One thing is for sure, there is a lot you can say about random. So let’s say some more and hopefully clear one or two things out:
First, let me just state the obvious: There is random (or variance rather) in Hattrick, and for a reason. It’s our way to make it possible for the underdog to win from time to time, we think the game is so much more fun if there are no 100% guaranteed wins. And as we, although in a simplified way, try to simulate real life – if makes very much sense as the underdog wins from time to time in real life as well.
In essence, Hattrick is a game about probabilities. Your job as a manager is simply to do everything in your power to increase your winning odds, which is just what any real life manager in theory does as well. This may sound banal and evident perhaps, but it’s nevertheless very important to have in the back of your head. Because many Hattrick mangers seem to forget about this, and that even though you’re the most probable to win it doesn’t mean you can take the win for granted.
I think no sane user would think of lowering his winning odds from 60% to 40% for example, but lowering it from 80% to 60% is not that uncommon. Don’t get me wrong here, it’s totally ok to do so and sometimes perhaps also “needed” to compete for a top spot in your series for example. But don’t forget that if you do, you’re also taking a risk. You’re still the favorite, but you do decrease your chance of winning significantly. That’s something you have to realize; it’s a risk you take. And if you lose when taking a risk like this, you don’t really lose just because of random.
Your actions count. Always. It’s what you put into to the game engine that matter, and even the smallest of details makes a difference. So one good piece of advice is to think about if you’re done what you can to increase your odds and consider the risks you might opt for.
Related to this, it’s also common that users believe their winning odds are much greater than what it really is. To be honest, this is actually very common (and thus also something to have in the back of your head). A good, and pretty new, CHPP site to get a knowhow about winning odds and probabilities is htev.org. Now, I haven’t checked exactly how accurate it is (it’s naturally not 100% accurate), but I can really recommend it. It’s a very good tool.
But “the match engine is too much random”, you might say. Or “it’s much more random these days”. Well, is it really? How do we know? Can it be because of something else perhaps? And if not, how much random should it be then?
I initially thought of writing just about these things, the other stuff was supposed to serve as an introduction. But I just can’t help myself; even though the things I’ve said above perhaps should be clear for most people – it’s still something users forget about or underestimate. And it’s so darn important (even though there are cases of really unfair losses as well naturally). So, I think it’s better to take the rest of the random stuff in a separate blog post instead. Next week, ok?
This blog entry would be a well start for a newbee guide.
I never complain about the randomness of the game. who does things well has a good chance of emerging victorious. Had such randomness would be almost impossible for a team win three consecutive Cup in spain. But I have the impression that the game engine is unbalanced.
Past, clearly dominate the possession was synonymous of victory in many cases. You attempted to mitigate this by adding penalties for the use of third inner etc. .. but now I think it produces better chance of success is the defense, except the use of hybrids that provide a bonus to attack, it is easier to get well in defense than attack. If we add the probabilities of counterattacks and events, playing defensively is easier and produces better results than in my opinion should be given. So tacticks like Benin become effective.
it was a very good read!
looking forward to the second part.
it’s also very nice of you that you mentioned HTEV in a positive way.
Excellent response, I thoroughly enjoyed this.
In one of my first lectures (some advertising kinda thing) my prof told us the following story:
One day a company had his employies complaining about how slow the elevator is. The employees were really annoyed. The costs for a faster elevator were huge, 1 or 2 million moneys. He would even have to get rid of some people to realize it.
In the end, someone came up with the idea to put a 500$ in the elevator so people had something to due while riding it. And the problem was solved.
Oh my god, i forgot the most important word:
They’ve put a mirror for 500$ in the elevator.
I think you can attract random depending the way you play… like having a strong defense but weak attack, and lose for some very weak attack. You don’t score and your opponent have a SE… random, ok, but VERY frustrating.
Some time ago, I got like 4 random games in a month, cup and league, almost left the game.
Very interesting read. Will you say something about the balancing of random influence and manager influence in the next posting?
Thanks. Well yes, it will be along those lines as well.
Fantastic way to address this topic. I completely agree that one of the biggest enemies to a manager is forgetting the easy and obvious things. Prepare as best you can, and if you still lose when you shouldn’t, just hold your hands up and say, “Ok, not this time. Forget it and move on.” The underdogs should always be able to cause an upset from time to time. 🙂
Yes, the main problem is people believe their winning odds were higher than they really were. They don’t understand engine enough. But why? You don’t help them at all with that. You praise htev.org – did you notice this site is much better than the stats and average ratings you developed just months before? These are almost misleading. This hatstats-like approach was outdated 8.5 years ago, when you introduced the tactics (or SEs even before it) and later the engine went farther away from it.
Htev tries to take everything into account to calculate the odds. Of course, they cant see the live ratings, they dont know SP level of the SP taker or the goalkeeper, so even htev.org does only a passable job. You can. You can develop much better post-match feedback to stop those crying babies from leaving.
I think thats an innaccurancy there. I don’t believe that users would lower their chances from 80 to 60% (at least the huge majority). What I’m sure about is that most of us often fail in increasing chances in some few per cent (because our expertize in the game is not complete) and (using the same range) that some will be satisfied with 60% when they could have reached 80%.
So, instead of stating “…but lowering it from 80% to 60% is not that uncommon…” I would rephrased it to something like “…but failing/neglecting to raise it from 60% to 80% is not that uncommom…”. ;^)
I don´t think it´s that inaccutare. To PIC in a match where you are the clear favorite may very well lower your winning odds from 80 to 60 %.
I agree with you :))
nice post, man ;)) thank u…
I really enjoyed reading this post. Before reaching the VI-th league in my country I had 2 seasons of flawless victories, feeling that I can take over the universe. Big mistake…still I realized that not random was the cause but me…so I did some reading, learned a lot, and changed my approach.
This blog post is so good, that I would put it on the homepage of hattrick, as everyone should read it. Not even Barcelona nor Real Madrid don’t win matches before they start, and the moment they underestimate their adversaries, “surprises” happen.
I think I’ve said enough, keep it up
Thanks a lot, glad you like it. 🙂
You should describe better the effect on the odds in the game engine in the manual, especially about the second and third skills. And not only about game engine, also about the changing of the player’s form and the injuries.
By the way I’ve never seen so many injuries of keepers as the last 2 sessions.
The only you have to do is to adjust this variance in order to extract results according to game instructions. In other words make it to hit matches between bots. Not in matches between active managers.
Please dont start to think about the integration of htev.org into Hattrick!
We want to have this site online.
With our past track record of integrating CHPP sites, I think we’re done doing that. 🙂
“Now, I haven’t checked exactly how accurate it is (it’s naturally not 100% accurate)”
Could you? It would be really interesting to know.
I’m not really sure it would serve any real purpose to know that it is 95% (or 99% or whatever) accurate. While it may be interesting, it’s not really helping to know exactly how accurate it is. It seems accurate enough in order give you a good impression of the odds, and that’s what important imho.
everybody knows HT is about probabilities. When I was student I graduated in math exactly with this topic, so I know, what it is all about. Furthermore, I personally translated one very good article about explaining of probabilities for our local HP. But the problem is that probabilities are one thing and too much random is second thing and they don´t fit together. I would agree with you if it happened once-twice per season, but loosing e.g. half of matches with random is too much. Nobody wants to win when underdog, because they are not able to, and people would like to win, if they made everything to prepare the best probability for match. And this is the topic you as a creators forget each time when speaking about random. You advice to increase probability as much as possible, but if someone is best and looses many matches in a season despite he made everything, then there is something wrong, indeed.
One very small example, how your GREAT RANDOM works – when I won possesion 5 times playing with great defence, I got SP events only in one match (imagine how many chances we are talking about). And in that one match, where I got two, I scored none of them despite having great SP taker… After I definitely ended with playing Hattrick fully this season, I played a match as a huge underdog, loosing 6-1, and imagine what – I scored with 40% BP as a underdog from SP… I hope you know what I wanted to show you.
And the second random what you should start to think is total score from match. In first match of ended season I played with the best I had that time. I played a bit better opponent, but I lost 6-0 as if I would have been an outsider. Then, later this season, after I sold the whole team, in the above mentioned 1-6 match, I was defeated only 1-6 with opponents from the same league, but I played 17 year old players with almost no ratings. But I lost with fewer goals then in my best time. Sorry, but this is not more about probabilities.
Furthermore, seasons and seasons I am trying to beat the bot in league with as much score as I can, but again – despite optimizing team earlier this season I won only 7-0!!! Once again – 7:0! When I played the same team later in the season, I beat the bot completely without attack ratings 8-0…
The game should be for managers, that try to improve, optimize, learn, but start to read national forums, I can give you hundreds of examples, that current HT is not about it. Sad to say, t´s about your lucky day, nothing more, nothing less.
Im sorry,but what i understand from your words, is that u dont understand nothing about the game 😐
A random in training…
have you thought about it?!?
It’s been a suggestion that has been up for discussion (easily put: you could get slightly more effective training one week, but also less effective), yes. I’m personally no big fan of it though.
I agree that surprises bring more fun ino the game experience, but from my point of view variance is too high at the moment. I would suggest to double the max. (and average) amount of chances per match and decrease the success quota for each chance by 50%. Should lead to the result that we see less extremely strange results.
Don’t forget that a long-term user can be fully frustrated if he is losing in a final season match against somehow who doesn’t know anything about match orders, special tactics etc. but takes his 4% chance and wins.
I think “deserved” suprises from underdogs through the help of clever tactics or lucky punches (hitting the “open” side, speciality optimizations etc.) would be enough. But if you loose two or three times per season against some team with 50 to 100 HatStats less and no clue of tactics this user’s frustration weighs much more than the fun factor of the lucky underdog. Don’t you think?
Hi Tjecken, i am one of the users that are most unhappy with Random, not because of personal results but because i feel that there are much more strage results than old times. I simply ask you to explain as much as you can about Random on your next post. Even if it didn’t increase his frequency, what are your feelings about the users that feel that it did? Don’t you think managers want to loose games with an explanation (like my left defense was weak) rather than not having a logical explanation?
Random leads to people quit, specially new users im my opinion. Old ones only if they get a massive amount of it.
Please give enough info about Random so i and others users stop opening topics complaining or asking how in the hell can this happen.
Some Random is good/necessary but keep it at minimum as possible. I know in the other hand you want to give weaker teams opportunities to win…so there is some rotativity in league tables to motivate as many users as desired.
I hope you can bring some peace of mind to users like me 🙂 Thank You